美联储最新利率决议在短短几天内就变得像馊掉的牛奶一样令人失望。
周三，央行宣布再次维持借贷成本不变，延续了自1月以来的观望模式。同日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔向记者表示，当前“稳健”的劳动力市场意味着央行决策者仍有充裕时间观望唐纳德·特朗普总统的关税政策对物价的影响，之后再考虑恢复降息——这一举措虽可能促进就业，但也存在重新推高通胀的风险。
仅仅两天后，事实表明就业市场的根基比鲍威尔所暗示的更为不稳。要确认情况是否果真如此，或许还需稍待时日。
但美联储可能会颜面尽失。美联储未就置评请求作出回应。
美国劳工部周五报告称，7月雇主仅新增7.3万个就业岗位，远低于维持人口增长所需的月度就业增长门槛。与此同时，失业率从4.1%微升至4.2%。
这份月度报告的实际状况比表面数据更为严峻：美国劳工部还对前两个月的新增就业人数进行了大幅下调。
最新修订的数据表明，就业增长疲软已成定局：2023年5月至7月期间，月均就业增速创下自2009年以来（除2020年疫情引发的经济衰退外）所有三个月时段的最低记录。
哈里斯金融集团（Harris Financial Group）管理合伙人杰米·考克斯（Jamie Cox）在周五发布的评论中表示：“鲍威尔（Powell）本周维持利率不变的决定将会让他后悔。”
但美联储内部并非所有人都认同鲍威尔对劳动力市场的看法。美联储的最新决议引发了数十年来罕见的内部反弹。
美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）和负责监管事务的美联储副主席米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）投下反对票，这标志着自1993年以来首次出现超过一位美联储理事持异议的情况。
两位官员在周五发布的声明中指出，劳动力市场疲软的迹象是他们持异议的主要原因，同时淡化了特朗普关税政策对物价的潜在影响。美联储受国会委托，需同时应对高通胀和劳动力市场走弱的问题。
鲍曼写道，劳动力市场的活力有所下降，且显现出日益脆弱的迹象。他补充称，根据最新数据，今年仅有少数行业推动了就业增长，这一情况在7月依然持续。
然而，现在断言美联储已彻底搞砸可能还为时过早。
克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克在7月就业报告发布后对彭博社表示：“这份报告确实令人失望，但当我们审视数据时，我们尽量避免对任何单一报告过度解读。我对本周早些时候做出的决定充满信心。”
去年，在失业率短期内快速攀升、各方再度批评央行降息行动迟缓之际，美联储果断出手，大幅降息50个基点，以遏制经济进一步走弱。
去年年底的数据显示，劳动力市场并未出现断崖式下跌：12月雇主新增就业岗位高达32.3万个，失业率较前月微降至4.1%。
It took only a few days for the Federal Reserves latest decision on interest rates to age like milk.
The central bank on Wednesday said it was holding borrowing costs steady yet again , extending a wait-and-see pattern that began in January. That same day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters that a solid labor market means central bankers still have the luxury of waiting to see how President Donald Trumps tariffs affect prices before resuming rate cuts that could help boost jobs but could also reignite inflation.
Just two days later, it turned out that the job market is on shakier ground than Powell had suggested. It may take a bit more time to know if thats really the case.
But the Fed may walk away with egg on its face. The Fed did not respond to a request for comment.
On Friday, the Labor Department reported that employers added just 73,000 jobs in July , well below the threshold of monthly job growth necessary to keep up with population growth. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1%.
And the monthly report was even worse than it seems: The Labor Department also massively revised downward the job gains for the prior two months.
Its now clear that job growth has been anemic, based on the newly revised data: The average pace of monthly job growth from May through July was the weakest than any other three-month period since 2009, outside of the pandemic recession in 2020.
Powell is going to regret holding rates steady this week, Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said in commentary issued Friday.
But not everyone at the Fed shared Powells view on the labor market. The Feds latest decision generated pushback from within like it hasnt seen in decades.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman cast dissenting votes, marking the first time that more than one Fed governor has done so since 1993.
In statements issued Friday, both officials pointed to signs of weakness in labor market as a major reason why they dissented, while downplaying the potential effects of Trumps tariffs on prices. The Fed is tasked by Congress to address both high inflation and a weakening labor market.
The labor market has become less dynamic and shows increasing signs of fragility, Bowman wrote, adding that just few industries have propelled job growth this year, which remained the case in July, according to the latest data.
Still, it may be too soon to conclude that the Fed has royally screwed up.
It was a disappointing report to be sure, but when I look at the data, we try not to make too much out of any one individual report, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told Bloomberg on Friday after the July jobs report was released. I feel confident with the decision we made earlier this week.
Last year, after the unemployment rate climbed quickly in a short period of time and there were similar calls that the central bank was too late to lower rates, the Fed stepped in with a bold, half-point rate cut to stave off any further weakening.
By the end of last year, it turned out that the labor market wasnt falling off a cliff: In December, employers added a massive 323,000 jobs as the unemployment rate edged down from the prior month to 4.1%.
